How Australia officially exited the health led recession? Exports lacking. China-Australia relationship – our Tiananmen Square. Origins of coronavirus begin to be answered – and its early origin is not China. UK vaccine exemption. Covid normal … ?
Chinese buying boycotts. US in structural decline and China doesn’t want our goods. What do Australia and Jack Ma have in common? Uncertainty for markets and the US Election effect. Where to invest?
Coronavirus waves are moving back through Europe with France and Germany re-initiating lock-down measures. The US dose of the pandemic is accelerating rapidly. These factors along with the US election are causing markets to fall. The question of who wins in the US Election is anyone’s guess – but I know who I don’t want…
Fiscal Stimulus v Monetary Policy Fiscal policy is how a government adjusts its spending levels and tax rates to monitor and influence a nation’s economy. It is the sister strategy to monetary policy through which a central bank influences a nation’s money supply and interest rates. Monetary policy – there is nothing really left to be done. Fiscal…
Earnings upgrades and downgrades for the coming years. Valuation metrics – what is the PE telling us currently. Technology stocks – Australia v America – the cash flow and expensiveness. Heading to and over the fiscal cliff – what awaits us. Coronavirus vaccine.
A few little questions we address this week. Can the bulls and the bears both be right about stock markets? Why would growth/technology stocks become so highly priced? What have interest rates got to do with growth and technology stocks? Are growth and technology stock values sustainable? What can change? Buy Now, Pay Later Examples. …
Financial markets are paranoid about an acceleration in new coronavirus cases, driven by the concern about a larger and longer global recession than expected. This concern was sparked by outbreaks in Beijing, Tokyo and the continuation of problems in US. Therefore, the market recovery is based on a reduction in social distancing practices but not…
Oil had its first weekly decline in over a month, dragged down by the broader selloff. OPEC confirmed a continuation of supply cuts with “overproducing nations” forced to pull back production into the future. This will stop the downward pressure on price which existed 6 weeks ago. At the same time, we have the start…
Since coronavirus struck the world has been a very strange place. After falling very rapidly, the markets bottomed at the 23rd of March when the ASX200 index was at 4650 (approx.). Whilst the markets have done a dance with volatility they have risen significantly since then. Today the ASX200 stands at around 6000. When we…
For those who can access Ausbiz News, Michael Dee was interviewed by Ingrid Willinge from Ausbiz on “A big step up in Trade Wars”. China v USA, China v Australia and soon China v India. China v Hong Kong. Where to from here? What it means for markets. To view the interview click here to…
Pythagoras investing explains its view of house price falls and where to from here?
Wolf diplomacy is China’s new way of dealing with the world. It has now caused Australia harm – first barley, now beef … what next
Stock markets do not reflect the general economy, therefore, stock prices vary from general economic conditions. This is are due to a few key dislocations between the stock market and the general economy. Firstly, the stock market index doesn’t represent the underlying economy – eg agriculture and small businesses are underrepresented. Secondly, large companies dominate…
The Chinese ambassador Cheng Jingye said that the Australian “pursuit of a global COVID-19 review could spark a Chinese consumer boycott of significant Australian services and products”. This opens a range of questions about Chinas wolf diplomacy and why aggression is being directed to Australia as well as what we should do about it. Will our politicians change course for our prosperity or remain opposed to economics and trade? What are the market impacts? Oh, and who was Thucydides? Who wins in the iron ore sector?
Oil : Big Winners and big losers by country and stock. OPEC is headed by Saudi Arabia. Historically OPEC openly manipulates the production volume of oil to maximise profits – it is the usual practice; a known price fixing. The USA has not participate in production cuts, instead usually increasing production when OPEC cuts. In…